By Bill Connelly, ESPN
in team sports, at least, stereotypes are often stereotypes for a reason. There is generally a kernel of truth in our assumptions. Take Wisconsin, for instance. Since Barry Alvarez broke through decades of struggle with a series of Rose Bowl bids, the Badgers have all but trademarked a certain style of play: run-heavy and physical on offense, equally physical and strong in containment on defense.
Wisconsin plays within itself, takes few risks, and leans on you till you fall over. Right? There have been more than enough 1,500-yard rushers and 20-16 wins to fulfill the prophecy. The name of the head coach has changed a few times, but the style and, for the most part, the wins haven't abated.
The past couple of years have seen interesting plot twists, however.
In 2017, Wisconsin enjoyed a breakthrough. The Badgers rolled through the regular season at 12-0, skating through their nonconference slate, through a pretty easy Big Ten West, and playing their best ball in their biggest games -- they beat ranked Iowa and Michigan teams by a combined 62-24. They fell by only six points to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship, then walloped Miami in the Orange Bowl to finish 13-1 and seventh in the AP poll.
This team was Wisconsin, but more. The defense, led by first-year coordinator and former Wisconsin star Jim Leonhard, ranked fourth in defensive S&P+ and achieved that ranking through aggression. The Badgers were second in the country in havoc rate (total tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles divided by total plays), and a full 47% of opponents' incompletions, the most in the country, were due to a defensed pass (interception or breakup). Wisconsin was sound and big-play phobic, but it also took the fight to you and ended up the better for it.
Offensively, Wisconsin still ran the ball constantly, but when the Badgers needed to pass, they could do it. They had one of the most efficient passing-downs offenses in the country, with Alex Hornibrook distributing the ball to an outstanding, young receiving corps. This wasn't just Wisconsin, it was Wisconsin+.
In 2018, then, you could say we saw Wisconsin-. The defense dealt with injuries up front, and both injuries and extreme inexperience in the back. D'Cota Dixon, the only experienced defensive back, missed four games, and the rest of the secondary was made up of freshmen and sophomores. The pass rush vanished, too.
Wisconsin sank to 59th in havoc rate and 29th in defensive S&P+ -- not bad, but not nearly as good.
The regression put pressure on the offense to make plays, and the passing downs magic disappeared. First, Hornibrook struggled; then, he got hurt and lost his job to sophomore Jack Coan. He transferred to Florida State after the season.
Wisconsin was as good as ever at running the ball -- Jonathan Taylor rushed for 2,194 yards and 16 touchdowns, and UW was second in rushing marginal efficiency. But the bonus features we saw in 2017's squad were gone. The warning signs came early in a 24-21 loss to BYU, and the deficiencies created massive inconsistency in conference play -- after winning seven Big Ten games by double digits the year before, they lost four such games.
So what now? After two extreme seasons in different ways, will the Badgers settle back into the 10-and-3-every-year rhythm we're used to? It's possible, but there could be more on the table if the QB position is more stable.
Taylor's back, the receiving corps still features A.J. Taylor and Danny Davis III, and this year's secondary is loaded with sophomores and juniors who got their feet wet in 2018. With Hornibrook gone, the starting job probably will go to either Coan or blue-chipper Graham Mertz, one of the most highly anticipated freshmen in school history.
In terms of turnover, the biggest questions come in units Wisconsin usually owns. The Badgers have to replace four starting offensive linemen, including two All-American guards (Michael Deiter and Beau Benzschawel) and 2017 All-American tackle David Edwards. This is Wisconsin, so there's no shortage of large, cornfed beasts, but the experience level is down a couple of pegs.
The Badgers also lose their top three TFL leaders, all linebackers. The line is more experienced, but OLB Zack Baun is the only known playmaker in the front seven. The secondary should be better, but that would only matter so much if the pass rush falls off a cliff.
in team sports, at least, stereotypes are often stereotypes for a reason. There is generally a kernel of truth in our assumptions. Take Wisconsin, for instance. Since Barry Alvarez broke through decades of struggle with a series of Rose Bowl bids, the Badgers have all but trademarked a certain style of play: run-heavy and physical on offense, equally physical and strong in containment on defense.
Wisconsin plays within itself, takes few risks, and leans on you till you fall over. Right? There have been more than enough 1,500-yard rushers and 20-16 wins to fulfill the prophecy. The name of the head coach has changed a few times, but the style and, for the most part, the wins haven't abated.
The past couple of years have seen interesting plot twists, however.
In 2017, Wisconsin enjoyed a breakthrough. The Badgers rolled through the regular season at 12-0, skating through their nonconference slate, through a pretty easy Big Ten West, and playing their best ball in their biggest games -- they beat ranked Iowa and Michigan teams by a combined 62-24. They fell by only six points to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship, then walloped Miami in the Orange Bowl to finish 13-1 and seventh in the AP poll.
This team was Wisconsin, but more. The defense, led by first-year coordinator and former Wisconsin star Jim Leonhard, ranked fourth in defensive S&P+ and achieved that ranking through aggression. The Badgers were second in the country in havoc rate (total tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles divided by total plays), and a full 47% of opponents' incompletions, the most in the country, were due to a defensed pass (interception or breakup). Wisconsin was sound and big-play phobic, but it also took the fight to you and ended up the better for it.
Offensively, Wisconsin still ran the ball constantly, but when the Badgers needed to pass, they could do it. They had one of the most efficient passing-downs offenses in the country, with Alex Hornibrook distributing the ball to an outstanding, young receiving corps. This wasn't just Wisconsin, it was Wisconsin+.
In 2018, then, you could say we saw Wisconsin-. The defense dealt with injuries up front, and both injuries and extreme inexperience in the back. D'Cota Dixon, the only experienced defensive back, missed four games, and the rest of the secondary was made up of freshmen and sophomores. The pass rush vanished, too.
Wisconsin sank to 59th in havoc rate and 29th in defensive S&P+ -- not bad, but not nearly as good.
The regression put pressure on the offense to make plays, and the passing downs magic disappeared. First, Hornibrook struggled; then, he got hurt and lost his job to sophomore Jack Coan. He transferred to Florida State after the season.
Wisconsin was as good as ever at running the ball -- Jonathan Taylor rushed for 2,194 yards and 16 touchdowns, and UW was second in rushing marginal efficiency. But the bonus features we saw in 2017's squad were gone. The warning signs came early in a 24-21 loss to BYU, and the deficiencies created massive inconsistency in conference play -- after winning seven Big Ten games by double digits the year before, they lost four such games.
So what now? After two extreme seasons in different ways, will the Badgers settle back into the 10-and-3-every-year rhythm we're used to? It's possible, but there could be more on the table if the QB position is more stable.
Taylor's back, the receiving corps still features A.J. Taylor and Danny Davis III, and this year's secondary is loaded with sophomores and juniors who got their feet wet in 2018. With Hornibrook gone, the starting job probably will go to either Coan or blue-chipper Graham Mertz, one of the most highly anticipated freshmen in school history.
In terms of turnover, the biggest questions come in units Wisconsin usually owns. The Badgers have to replace four starting offensive linemen, including two All-American guards (Michael Deiter and Beau Benzschawel) and 2017 All-American tackle David Edwards. This is Wisconsin, so there's no shortage of large, cornfed beasts, but the experience level is down a couple of pegs.
The Badgers also lose their top three TFL leaders, all linebackers. The line is more experienced, but OLB Zack Baun is the only known playmaker in the front seven. The secondary should be better, but that would only matter so much if the pass rush falls off a cliff.
