For all the Iowa game bedwetters

AquaBadger · Nov 6, 2017

Let statistics help you wake up on Saturday morning...un-soiled.

The last five games against Iowa:

2016 - UW beat Iowa and outrushed them 167 to 83 yards.
2015 - UW lost to Iowa and was outrushed 144 to 86 yards.
2014 - UW beat Iowa and outrushed them 266 to 101 yards.
2013 - UW beat Iowa and outrushed them 218 to 110 yards.
2010 - UW beat Iowa and outrushed them 142 to 118 yards.

The team that has run for more yards has won all 5 games. Anything can happen, however, if you are looking at one stat that is key to victory, yards rushing is a good one.

Now let's compare the 2017 Iowa team to another team we've played, Northwestern:

Northwestern Team: 341 carries, 1254 yards, average 3.7 yards/carry, long 68 yards. Top rusher - Justin Jackson: 181 carries, 798 yards, average 4.4 yards/carry, long 42 yards.
Iowa Team: 331 carries, 1289 yards, average 3.9 yards/carry, long 35. Top rusher - Akram Wadley: 181 carries, 761 yards, average 4.2 yards/carry, long 35.

The two teams are eerily similar in terms of rushing ability, quality of schedule, and wins. Their game went to overtime with Northwestern pulling out the win.

Not coincidentally - The team the ran the ball better won! Northwestern rushed for 147 yards (led by 93 from Jackson on 25 attempts) while Iowa rushed for 89 (led by 90 from Wadley on 26 carries).

Here's where the comfort comes:

The games between Iowa and Wisconsin typically come down to who rushes the ball better.
Northwestern is very comparable rushing team to Iowa.
UW played and held Northwestern to 25 yards rushing on 34 attempts in a winning effort.

Based on each teams results against Northwestern, UW will defend Iowa's rushing attack and almost assuredly rush for more yards. If that happens, there is a high likelihood and should be a high level of confidence that UW will beat Iowa.

otisflowers · Nov 6, 2017