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Will the defense be good? How will we know?

There has been lots of talk about how the fast-paced Phil Longo offense will mean a reduced TOP advantage, which will mean the defense may be great but stats will be worse because they will be on the field longer and see more plays themselves. Being a curious sort, I looked at some stats from the last few years to gauge whether that would shed any light. Not enough statistical knowledge to create the analytical tool, so here are some numbers.

2022 Stats (Rank) - Opp Plays - 66.4 (#19), Opp TOP - 28.3 min (#32), Pts Allowed - 21.9 (#24), Opp Pts/Play - .330 (#31). Opp Yds/Play - 4.6 (#11)

All were worse than the previous three years, where the Badgers were largely Top 10 on all of these metrics but pts/play, where they were ranked #9, #14, and #12 going back three years.

Opp TOP going backwards from last year - 28.3, 26.1, 23.4, 24.2, with both 2020 and 2019 being ranked #1.

So yeah, conventional wisdom is likely right.

Unless we're the 2022 Iowa Hawkeyes, who saw 71 plays per game (#70), were ranked #111 in Opp TOP but finished 3rd in Scoring Defense, and 1st in both Points/Play and Yards/Play.

Saturday can't come soon enough.

2023 Predictions

Based on playing 13 games

Games Won. O/U. 10.5
Yards/game. O/U. 450
Pass yards/game. O/U. 275
Rush yards/game. O/U. 225
Pass yards season. O/U. 3000
Rush yards season. O/U. 2500
TDs season. O/U. 60.5
Pass TDs season. O/U. 45.5
Rush TDs season. O/U. 25.5
Most rush yards. ?
Most receiving yards. ?
Most interceptions. ?
Most tackles. ?
Most sacks. ?
Most tackles for loss. ?
Offense MVP. ?
Defense MVP. ?
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Thoughts on Phil Longo and the offense

Longo has been a very successful OC. His first year at Sam Houston State they averaged 49.5 points and 547/ypg. His first year at Old Miss 32.8 and 462. First year at North Carolina 33.1 and 474. I'm expecting a 450ypg and 32PPG+ offense. Expect BA to have a hugh year.

Some notes:

He has never had a offense average less that 32PPG.

He only runs 26 plays. His philosphy is master a few plays that can be run near instinctually.

He uses tempo to prevent defenses from disguising coverages.

Uses WR alignment to sideline to stretch out defenses and pull defenders out of the box..

Uses Green grass philosophy throw where they aint. He teaches throwing to tiny windows in the defense.

When 6 or less in box he loves power run counter, RPO, and zone.

His highest scoring offenses were his best rushing. 2020 UNC 41.7pts and rush 235ypg. 2021 35.2pts rush 212ypg

He will throw to all levels. You'll see alot of swing passes, slot diggs. He runs a vertical on nearly every pass play and will thow it multiple time over the top every game. He's ok with 50/50 balls.

Other thoughts:

Longo defenses at NC were horrible. Best was ranked in 50s. last year was 110th.

His offense can struggle with more athletic fronts on longer pass plays taking more sacks.

Thoughts?

Calm before the storm

Pretty, pretty quiet on here today. I am very excited that we're finally into game week.

A few random observations:
1) The Athletic did a coaching tiers article and Coach Fickell was in the top 10 of all coaches, Tier 2 behind Saban/Smart/Sweeney and with Day/KhakiPants. I would have happily rolled with Leonard, but it seems every thing I see reinforces the feeling that we got a good one.
2) Did an Our Lads depth chart deep dive
- Carson Hinzman named starter for OSU - dang, that's the one I still feel bad about.
- Schrauth shown as 2nd team. Didn't watch much of the ND game yesterday, but assume he played second half.
- MSU shows Berger as the starter and both Melvin and Franklin as second teamers. Wish they were on the schedule this year.
- Kansas has Logan Brown starting at LT
4) The NDBC team raved about the job Rudy did getting the line ready. We'll see. Navy not much of a challenge.

Bring on Buffalo!
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